The Complete Guide to Over / Under NFL Sports Betting
It’s that time of the year, let’s make sure you know what you’re doing!
The start of the NFL season is going to be sneaking up on us a lot faster than you may think (pre-season starts in only a couple of months) and with it, there’s going to be a slew of new bettors out there that want to win some money!
Are you one of them? Would you like to make a profession out of placing wagers, or just have a little fun and just go for a couple of bucks here and there?
No matter which of these two types you are, you may or may not be aware that one of the most popular types of wagers you can make in football is betting on Totals – The Over or Under.
These bets are actually very simple and quick to make and can be a lot of fun! Even better, if you are new to football in general, you may be pleasantly surprised by the fact that you don’t have to know a whole lot about the sport itself to have a fair chance of winning!
Now, with that said there’s still an art, a craft if you will, to placing smart Over/Under bets. This guide is going to be your crash course. When this is done you will have learned how totals betting works in the NFL, how the bookmakers choose their numbers, and how to use the point spread to your advantage and improve your odds of winning!
In short, you’re going to be ready to go off to your sportsbook of choice and place intelligent and informed Over/Under bets!
If you would like you can click on any of these links right here to be taken directly to their respective review page where I really take a look at details. You can also keep on scrolling down to get some highlights of the great offers that these books offer the players.
A Guide To How Football Over/Under Betting Works
If you have already checked out a sportsbook and have seen the spread (or moneyline) you may be a little confused if you are just starting out. Well, I have great news – The totals betting is much simpler than that!
Here’s how it works:
As the name itself implies, you will be working with game totals. The oddsmakers and sportsbooks will forecast the cumulative points that will be scored by both teams in a given game. It will be up to you to predict whether the actual number of points scored will end up over or under that number.
It’s super easy to know if you have won or lost. Just compare the cumulative points scored during the game that you bet on!
Often it will be possible to know whether or not you have won before a game is even over. Let’s say that you bet the “over” on a game and the game turns into a shooting match and the combined points outstrip the sportsbooks forecasted total with time to spare. The end of the game wouldn’t matter at that point as you would already know that you’ve got some money coming your way!
Why The Over/Under On NFL Games Is So Popular
- Ease Of Bets
- You’re Not Being Forced To Choose A Team
- Bettors Are Not Required To Do A Ton Of Research
Totals betting is almost as easy as it’s going to get and this is going to appeal to many bettors, new and seasoned alike. Those that are brand new may be attracted by the ease of placing these bets. Those that have been betting for a while may grow tired or bored with the work that is involved with spread betting and are attracted to the simplicity of totals betting!
Another reason that these types of bets are so popular in football is because you’re not forced to take a side or choose a team. You don’t have to do any work to see who’s got the better stats, who has played better against who in the past, nothing of the sort. In fact, you just don’t have to care at all which team wins a game! The only thing you have to be interested in is the sum of the two teams points and whether or not that number is consistent with your bet.
If you are someone that wants to bet professionally, you are going to have to start doing your homework and research various stats to make smart bets. That’s just the way it is. For those that are just starting out however, betting on totals can get you in on the excitement of the game and winning some cash immediately! You’ll have to do some work eventually, but betting on the Over/Under will get you started out nicely.
You now know why there are so many sports bettors out there that love to bet on the Over/Under in the NFL. Now let’s go ahead and take a look at how the bookmakers and sportsbooks choose their total.
The Rams going up against the Broncos!
How The NFL Totals Are Calculated
It has been mentioned that a gambler doesn’t have to do a ton of research or analyze a whole lot to get started in totals betting. This is because the sportsbooks will do it for you!
During the process of setting the Over/Under, the bookmakers will consider the following factors from both the team and the player prospective.
- History During Previous Meetings
- Field Goal Conversions
- Rushing Yards
- Down Conversions
- Completions and Interceptions
And still more than that, but this gives you an idea about the level of research that will go into choosing totals.
Taking things like this into consideration, the sportsbooks have to ensure that their numbers are correct so that they don’t go off and lose everything! They have the most skin in the game, so to speak. It’s in their best interest to calculate the totals that draw an equal number of bettors to both sides of the forecasted totals.
Always remember, sportsbooks and bookmakers make all of their money on commission, they do not care what the game outcome is!
What Are The Typical Payouts For NFL Over/Under Bets?
Just straight Over/Under bets pay out close to “even money”. As an example, if you were to wager $20 on the “over” for a game between the Steelers and the Ravens and their cumulative points exceed the forecasted number, you can expect to receive $40, less the vig. Likewise, if you were to bet on the “under” and the cumulative points fall below the forecast.
Sometimes, an Over/Under will come with odds and these odds will complicate the payout scenario.
As an example with odds, let’s say that the bookmakers have forecasted a cumulative score of 41 for our Steelers and Ravens game. They would set the Over/Under at 41.5 (you cannot score a half-point in football) and based on an analysis of both teams, the odds get set at -115/+110. Here’s how this bet could be presented:
- Steelers 41.5 O -115
- Ravens 41.5 U +110
Because of the odds listed here, you wouldn’t even make even money on this bet. You would have to wager $115 to win $100 on the Over bet. On the other hand, you would only need to wager $100 to win $110 on the Under.
Totals often get adjusted when bets become lopsided. As I already mentioned, the sportsbooks prefer an evenly-balanced bet so that they can count on making a profit from the commissions. But sometimes, sportsbooks will leave these totals unadjusted, preferring instead to apply odds. This will produce the same effect which is rebalancing the two sides.
Is Forecasting The Totals An Exact Science?The most common totals for NFL games are 37, 44, 41, 43, 51, 40, and 47. Can you think of a way to use this information to improve your odds? Let’s look at another example:
Let’s say that you’re going to bet on the Over/Under on a game with a forecasted total of 37.5. While some games do end up with totals below 37, it just doesn’t happen very often because cumulative scores are almost always higher. This would mean that you should really think twice before betting the Under here!
Once you do that, why not open an account over at BetOnline where you can get a Welcome Bonus of up to $1,000 when you use the code BET1000!
How To Use The NFL Point Spread When Betting On Totals
If you’re looking at a point spread and it’s listed with a total you can often use it to gain a slight advantage! Here’s how:
- Take the point spread and divide that number by two
- Divide the Over/Under by two
- Add half the point spread and half of the Over/Under to arrive at the favored teams projected points
- Now, subtract half of the point spread from half of the Over/Under to arrive at the underdog’s projected points
- Add your results
Following that will get you very close to the Vegas predictions. You can then use that number to shop around and compare the totals at various sportsbooks. You may even find that the forecast is just “off” at some sportsbooks!
Going back to the Steelers and Ravens example, let’s assume the following Over/Under and point spread:
- Steelers 41.5 O -10
- Ravens 41.5 U +10
This tells us that the Steelers are the favored team here while the Ravens are the underdog. So now let’s apply the formula that was just discussed above:
- Divide the spread by two
- Divide the Over/Under by two
- Add half the point spread and half of the Over/Under
- Subtract half of the point spread from half of the Over/Under
- Add your results
10 divided by 2 is 5.
41.5 divided by 2 is 20.75.
20.75 plus 5 equals 25.75. This is the projected number of points for the Steelers.
20.75 minus 5 equals 15.75. This is the projected number of points for the Ravens.
25.75 plus 15.75 equals 41.5
With Vegas predicting 41.5 for this hypothetical game, we’re right on target. At this time you would want to visit several sportsbooks to look for a total that varies from this number possibly in an attempt to balance out the two sides of the wager.
Betting on the “Over” here would very much improve your chances of winning!
How Can Overtime Affect The Over/Under?
Can ‘overtime’ affect the over/under? Let’s find out!
If a game goes into overtime, any points that are scored during this time will still be included in the total. This will only be good news if you had bet the Over, not so good if you bet the Under.
Heading once again into our Steelers and Ravens game, let’s go ahead and suppose that the regular game ends like this:
Steelers 20
Ravens 20
Given that it’s a tie, both of these teams will go into overtime. The first team to score wins.
Now let’s say that you head bet the Under on 41.5. This is unfortunately going to be bad news for you. Any points that are scored will push the score above 41.5, costing you the wager.
But what if you had bet the Over? If that’s the case, going into overtime is great news for you! Any event that scores will push the score above 41.5 guaranteeing you a payout!
The Bottom Line:
Points that are scored during overtime count. Keep in mind that it’s not uncommon at all for NFL games to come within tying distance in the 4th quarter!
Let’s go ahead and wrap things up with 5 tips on making smart wagers on the Over/Under.
5 Tips For Making Smart Bets On NFL Totals
Of course the following tips are not going to guarantee you’ll win your totals bets, nobody can make that promise, but they’ll help you avoid making some terrible bets and improve your overall odds!
- Shop For The Best Over/Unders
Different sportsbooks are going to often carry different totals. This often stems from the level of action on both sides of the bet!
Always remember, the totals are sometimes adjusted when the two sides fall out of balance. It will really pay off in the end for you to check several sites before you decide where you want to place your bets.
- Check Vegas’s Predictions
Most of the time you will see that sportsbooks will follow Vegas pretty closely in setting totals, but there are going to be times when the numbers that are chosen by the online sportsbooks vary from those that are forecasted.
As a general rule, trust the oddsmakers in Vegas. They’ve got a ton to lose if they make bad predictions!
- Look for opportunities In Number Adjustments
You will recall from further up the page there that bookmakers prefer an even number of bettors on both sides of a total, but this is going to rarely happen naturally. In most cases, the sides become lopsided as bets are placed and the bookmakers must adjust either adjust the Over/Under or apply odds to re-balance things.
There’s plenty of opportunity in the Over/Under adjustments. For example, if a bookmaker lowers the total in an attempt to draw more people to the Over side of a bet, you may want to consider taking advantage of the improved odds.
- Forget All About Last Week
Any team’s performance last week will have minimal influence, if any, on their performance this week. Sure, maybe the Steelers scored 50 points last week. Doesn’t mean that they’ll do it again tonight! Last week’s performance could be an aberration, just a fluke!
At the same time, reviewing seasonal performance is important because it may indicate a trend.
No matter which way you look at it, it just cannot be counted on!
- Get Familiar With Each Team’s Style
Some teams are going to be more aggressive than others, they don’t want to just win, they want to win by a huge margin. These teams usually have great passing games as they attempt to grab touchdown after touchdown.
Now others are going to be more conservative. They’re going to try to win without taking unnecessary risks. Often this means that they will forego high risk opportunities for a more moderate approach.
It’s going to behoove you to try to identify which teams and coaches are going to use an aggressive playbook and which may go another direction. Those with a conservative approach may mean fewer points scored which will affect your Over/Under bets.
You’re all caught up on that!
Now let’s talk about the where to go and use this knowledge!
The Best Places To Place Your Over/Under Bets
You’re just about ready to go and win yourself some money! All that’s left to do is check out the highest rated Online Sportsbooks and decide which ones are going to be the best for you!
All of the sportsbooks you’re about to read about have been thoroughly vetted as being safe, reliable, trustworthy books. Not only have I worked with all of these sportsbooks for many years now (literal decades in a couple of instances), but I actually use them for my own betting as well. There’s nothing in it for me to send you off to any place where I’ve had a bad experience!
Bovada
My personal favorite right here. Bovada has some of the best odds you’re going to find out in the wild combined with being one of the oldest sports betting sites on the internet.
Make sure while you’re there you take a look at the 50% Welcome Bonus of up to $250 if you make your initial deposit with traditional money, or a 75% Welcome Bonus of up to $750 if you would like to use crypto. If you would like to go the crypto route you will need to use the code BTSCWB750 with that deposit.
If you happen to love casinos as much as sportsbooks, you can get up to a $3,000 Welcome Bonus with the code CAWELCOME100.
BetOnline
For those of you out there that would like to hunt down some Extra Bonuses, BetOnline should be one of your top two choices, (the other listed below).
BetOnline also has the 50% Welcome Bonus which you can use and get up to $1,000 when you make your first deposit with the code BOL1000.
Make sure that you check out all of their promotions, many of which you’re just not going to find anywhere else!
BookMaker
Almost any sportsbook you visit is going to have rollover requirements attached to your winnings if you decide that you would like to take advantage of their bonuses, and BookMaker is no exception here. However, those requirements are much more forgiving here.
Also something to take note of is the fact that BookMaker is among the best for returning players with an absolutely incredible Loyalty Program.
Like BookMaker and think that your friends would as well? Turn them on to the site and you can score $500 for each one that you bring along to join in on the fun!
SportsBetting
If you took a look over at BetOnline and liked it, you’ll really dig SportsBetting as well! The two sites are owned and operated by the same great team and the sites even run and look very much alike.
That 50% Welcome Bonus of up to $1,000 that was over at BetOnline? It still exists over at SportsBetting as well but you’ll need to code SB1000.
My advice? Join both so that you can take advantage of the same great bonus at both sites and basically claim yourself $2,000 as well as all of the other bonuses at least twice!
EveryGame
EveryGame would be the other site that is going to be the greatest for those that want to go on out and hunt for the best bonuses and promotions. You want a site that’s going to be very heavy on specific sports that are in season? Here’s the site for you!
EveryGame is also the best when it comes down to rewarding players for being good at what they love and that’s in the way of some extra bonuses that come along every month for the players that do their best throughout the month. For example, there’s the Parlay Prince promotion which will grant one player a month $1,000 for raking in the most cash in their parlay bets.
And speaking of parlays, there are 50, $20 Bets that are given away in a random drawing to players that place losing parlay bets! Seriously, go and check it out! I really cannot think of anyone else that’s going to give you Free Stuff for losing!
XBet
XBet is probably the site that’s going to really cater to the “younger” players out there, but don’t let that fool you. No matter your age or your background you will be welcome with open arms!
You have noticed by now that all of these places have a Welcome Bonus for the new players out there, and XBet is no exception with their 50% Welcome Bonus of up to $500, but they also really take care of their existing customers with their $250 Reload Bonus for those times that you need to top off your account.
Conclusion
If you have never taken part in the NFL totals betting, this is what I recommend:
Take a look at a few of the top-rated sportsbooks on this list.
Take a look at the Over/Unders for some upcoming games.
Choose the best games in light of these totals predicted by the Vegas oddsmakers.
Now, put just a little cash at risk and kick back and enjoy the game(s). It’s one of the best and simplest ways to get yourself started in the world of online sports betting and betting on the Over/Unders in the NFL.
And Make Sure That You Also Check Out:
- The Best NFL Betting Sites In 2024
- What You Need To Know About Injuries In The NFL
- A Complete Guide To NFL Prop Bets
- And Stepping Away From Football For Just A Moment, Where to Bet on Aliens, (yes, ALIENS)